I still think that this election will not be close. I think that the infatuation with Palin will disappear as people learn more about her and some of the extreme positions she takes on issues. One poll that I read today shows a lot of potential problems for the Republicans in the perception of Palin.
First, 60% of the public sees her as fighting corruption. The Troopergate scandal should take care of that. Second, 47% think she has been against earmarking. Learning about the bridge to nowhere should take care of that. Third, 40% believe that she shares their views on abortion. Fourth, 49% think she shares their views on the environment.
Here is where it gets interesting. First, 56% do not know that she supports creationism. Second, 47% do not know that she does not think man has caused global warming. Third, 35% do not know her position on the bridge to nowhere.
Any good political consultant could drive a truck through these issues.
There are two other reasons, really three. There has been a marked shift to Democrats in new registrations. And by marked shift, I mean huge shift. Consider Nevada. In 2004, Republicans had a 1% lead in voter registrations. Now that is a 6% Democratic advantage. Obama has done a great job in getting new voters registered and now will work to get these voters to the polls or either early vote.
One state to watch is Ohio. The state opens up registration in late September and look for the Obama campaign to register college students in large numbers. I did a calculation, and there are nearly 300,000 students at Ohio’s public universities. With about 75% supporting Obama, that may mean another 100,000 votes for Obama. Bush led Ohio by about 130,000 votes, and of course, there are allegations that these votes were stolen and it is a fact that there was a huge voter suppression effort by the Republicans. Of course, now you have a Democratic governor and secretary of state, so the Rethugs will not be able to steal this one.
The Obama campaign concentrates on 22 states, but that number is probably down to 18. Overall, Obama has 336 local offices to McCain’s 101, with 35 of McCain’s offices in Florida. As someone who has run a local campaign, the local office is so important in getting voters to the polls, and that is how elections are won.
All signs still favor the Democrats. The Rethugs have run this country into the dirt for 8 years. People are pissed off. McCain is running the nastiest campaign in modern history and that will eventually destroy his own reputation. Palin is a liar and a cheap, tawdry, vindictive religious zealot. I still think Obama will win easily.
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